![]() Chart 3 shows that growth in the value of exports from China declined by more than 30 percentage points in February 2020, reflecting both the effects of the Chinese New Year and the effects of the Wuhan lockdown. Monthly export data from China show a similar pattern. However, the national index has fallen by much less than it did in response to the Wuhan lockdown, suggesting the Shanghai lockdown has been more localized and less synchronized with other cities. The national index (blue line) also declined by about 10 percent, reflecting that many other cities in China tightened restrictions or imposed partial lockdowns in response to the developments in Shanghai. The green line shows that congestion in Shanghai declined in March 2022 to a level about 25 percent below its historical average. Third, the current Shanghai lockdown, which started at the end of March, appears to be more localized and slightly less severe than the Wuhan lockdown. The orange line shows that while Wuhan experienced a similar drop in congestion during this period, congestion remained at this low level for an extended period, reflecting the two-month lockdown. The blue line shows that congestion nationwide dropped more than 30 percent from late January to late February 2020, nearly doubling the decline from the previous Chinese New Year in 2019. ![]() ![]() Second, the congestion index shows that the 2020 lockdown in China, which coincided with the Chinese New Year, was especially severe. First, congestion usually drops about 15 percent around the Chinese New Year, when most residents do not work, and then quickly bounces back, suggesting congestion is highly correlated with economic activity in China. Note: The national congestion index is constructed using a GDP-weighted measure of the 10 Chinese cities with the highest total output.Ĭomparing the indexes reveals three findings. Chart 2: Congestion indexes show the current lockdown in Shanghai has been less severe ![]()
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